Wednesday, August 28, 2013

美国有罪推定叙利亚 中国不干了

信源:明
美、英官员近日接二连三咬定叙政府使用化武,但一直未有确凿证据。中国官方新华社昨发表评论文章,指西方似乎早已作出「有罪推定」,认定叙利亚军方是主谋,情就如当年美国攻打伊拉克前夕诬陷其有大杀伤力武器一样

这篇题为《叙化武问题切忌「有罪推定」》文章指出,虽然联合国调查小组结论未出,但以美法为代表的西方国家却将矛头直指巴沙尔政权使用化武,并加紧军事部署和外交压力,反覆强调「一切信息」、「一堆事实」都显示叙政府使用了化武

文章提到,叙利亚政府加强打击西方支持的反对派武装,让西方如鲠在喉,如今化武传闻出现,西方正好大做文章,并在联合国调查小组尚未作出结论之前,早已先入为主,调兵遣将。文章认为,当前首要问题是联合国展开独立公正的调查,找出真兇,在查明真相前不应采取单方面军事行动,否则不但无视联合国存在,更有违国际法精神。


文章特别提到,美国当年入侵伊拉克前,就是咬定对方拥有大杀伤力武器,结果最后证实指控不实。美国当年引用伊拉克反对派提供的虚假证据,例如声称总统萨达姆拥有设在卡车上的流动生化武器工厂,后来调查发现,所谓证据只是「传闻」,甚至是反对派虚构出来,但时任美国国务卿鲍威尔在联大演说中把他们当作关键「证辞」。克里前天以YouTube片段为证据指控叙国使用化武,难免令人怀疑美国是否会重蹈当年覆辙


中俄公开警告美国勿叙利

信源:德国之声
围绕叙利亚化武疑云,西方已经失去等待结果的耐心,擂响对叙利亚动武战鼓。美欧多国26日敲定了48时闪击叙利亚的计划,根据计划,包括美军在内的多国部队将在战斗打响后的48个小时内对多个叙利亚当局控制目标发射至少100战斧式巡航导弹,五角大楼也已计划调F-22“猛禽战机首次参与实战。面对西方吹响的战争号角,中俄两国再次联手警告美欧军事干预将招致难性后果


就在叙利亚化武疑云仍然待解之际,美欧国家已经迫不及待启动战争选项。美国国家广播公司(NBC27日爆料,829日美欧可能对叙利亚实施空中打击。打击可能持续三天,将实施精确空中打击。军事行动意在惩罚叙利亚使用禁用武器,同时寻求作为一种威慑防止此类事件再次发生。按多名美国官员的说法,美军将以战斧式巡航导弹在夜间发动精准打击,目标为叙政府军武器库、指挥和控制设施,雷达和通信装备、化武运送手段及火炮与火箭弹发射装置

目前,除美军已派往地中海区域的四艘阿利伯克Arleigh Burke神盾外,英国皇家海军也已向地中海派遣了至少一艘特拉法加Trafalgar级核潜艇,而对叙利亚的第一波打击任务就将由该批舰船执行。此外,美军已在塞浦路斯及土耳其布置了空军部队。五角大楼更计划调动F-22F-15前往约旦参加打击任务,如计划得以落实,这将是F-22自利比亚内战后第一次投入实战

就美国等西方国家的表态,俄罗斯官方三天内至少5发出警告。25日,俄罗斯外交部发言人卢卡舍维奇警告西方国家勿在叙利亚犯下剧性错误。同一天,俄外交部长拉夫罗夫(Sergei Lavrov)同克里(John Forbes Kerry)通电话,对美方先前暗示准备对叙发动军事打击的言辞表达深切焦

随后,26日拉夫罗夫警告,对叙利亚采取任何未经联合国安理会授权的军事行动都违反国际法。认定军事干预叙利亚局势将给地区带来难性后果。俄罗斯总统普京(Vladimir Putin26日与英国首相卡梅伦(David Cameron)通电话强调,没有证据(表明)是否存在化学武器攻击或者谁要为此负责

与此同时,中国政府也在第一时间声援罗斯。中国外交部长王毅26调,政治解决是叙利亚问题的唯一现实出路。当务之急是尽快举行叙利亚问题第二次日内瓦会议。各方应谨慎处理叙利亚化武问题,避免干扰政治解决叙利亚问题的大方向

中共党报《人民日报》28日刊发评论文章,点名批评美法在使用化武实尚未完全清楚的情况下,就对叙利亚政府下了判决10年前,华盛顿借口伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤性武器,展开了一场大规模的战争。但后来的事实表明,种种情报只不过是美国发动推翻萨达姆政权战争的幌子而已

文章指出,叙利亚内战爆发以来,强力推翻巴沙尔政权的冲动一直没有消失。利比亚模式科索沃模式缓冲区飞区”……尽管各种谋划名称各异,但偏袒叙利亚反对派一方的指向是一致的。这些谋划破坏了安理会内部团结、加大国际社会有效调解的难度,甚至是在给叙利亚内战火上浇油。而真正解决叙利亚问题的出路,就在于启动包容性政治过渡进程,尽快举行第二次日内瓦会议实有必要


Intercepted phone calls prove Syrian army used nerve gas, say U.S. spies


Free Syrian Army fighters escort a convoy of UN vehicles carrying a team of United Nations chemical weapons experts during their visit at one of the sites of an alleged chemical weapons attack in Damascus' suburbs of Zamalka on Wednesday.
By: Noah Schactman Foreign Policy
WASHINGTON — Last Wednesday, in the hours after a horrific chemical attack east of Damascus, an official at the Syrian Ministry of Defence exchanged panicked phone calls with a leader of a chemical weapons unit, demanding answers for a nerve agent strike that killed more than 1,000 people.
Those conversations were overheard by U.S. intelligence services, FP has learned. And that is the major reason why American officials now say they’re certain that the attacks were the work of the Bashar Assad regime — and why the U.S. military is likely to attack that regime in a matter of days.
US Says Chemical Weapons Use in Syria 'Undeniable'
But the intercept raises questions about culpability for the chemical massacre, even as it answers others: Was the attack on Aug. 21 the work of a Syrian officer overstepping his bounds? Or was the strike explicitly directed by senior members of the Assad regime?
“It’s unclear where control lies,” one U.S. intelligence official told FP. “Is there just some sort of general blessing to use these things? Or are there explicit orders for each attack?”
Nor are U.S. analysts sure of the Syrian military’s rationale for launching the strike — if it had a rationale at all.
Perhaps it was a lone general putting a long-standing battle plan in motion; perhaps it was a miscalculation by the Assad government.
Whatever the reason, the attack has triggered worldwide outrage, and put the Obama administration on the brink of launching a strike of its own in Syria. “We don’t know exactly why it happened,” the intelligence official added. “We just know it was pretty [expletive] stupid.”
American intelligence analysts are certain that chemical weapons were used on Aug. 21 — the captured phone calls, combined with local doctors’ accounts and video documentation of the tragedy — are considered proof positive.
That is why the U.S. government, from the president on down, has been unequivocal in its declarations that the Syrian military gassed thousands of civilians in the East Ghouta region.
However, U.S. spy services still have not acquired the evidence traditionally considered to be the gold standard in chemical weapons cases: soil, blood and other environmental samples that test positive for reactions with nerve agent. That’s the kind of proof that America and its allies processed from earlier, small-scale attacks that the White House described in equivocal tones, and declined to muster a military response to in retaliation.
There is an ongoing debate within the Obama administration about whether to strike Assad immediately — or whether to allow United Nations inspectors to try to collect that proof before the bombing begins.
This week, White House Press Secretary Jay Carney called the work of that team “redundant . . . because it is clearly established already that chemical weapons have been used on a significant scale.”
But within the intelligence community, at least, “there’s an interest in letting the UN piece run its course,” the official said. “It puts the period on the end of the sentence.”
When news about the Ghouta incident first trickled out, there were questions about whether or not a chemical agent was to blame for the massacre. But when weapons experts and U.S. intelligence analysts began reviewing the dozens of videos and pictures allegedly taken from the scene of the attacks, they quickly concluded that a nerve gas, such as sarin, had been used there.
The videos showed young victims who were barely able to breathe and, in some cases, twitching. Close-up photos revealed that their pupils were severely constricted. Doctors and nurses who say they treated the victims reported that they later became short of breath as well. Eyewitnesses talk of young children so confused, they couldn’t even indentify their own parents.
All of these are classic signs of exposure to a nerve agent like sarin, the Assad regime’s chemical weapon of choice.
Making the case even more conclusive were the images of the missiles that supposedly delivered the deadly attacks. If they were carrying conventional warheads, they would have likely been all but destroyed as they detonated. But several missiles in East Ghouta were found largely intact.
“Why is there so much rocket left? There shouldn’t be so much rocket left,” the intelligence official told FP. The answer, the official and his colleagues concluded, was that the weapon was filled with nerve agent, not a conventional explosive.
In the days after the attacks, there was a great deal of public discussion about which side in Syria’s horrific civil war actually launched the strike. Allies of the Assad regime, like Iran and Russia, pointed the finger at the opposition. The intercepted communications told a different story — one in which the Syrian government was clearly to blame.
The official White House line is that the president is still considering his options for Syria. But all of Washington is talking about a punitive strike on the Assad government in terms of when, not if. Even some congressional doves have said they’re now at least open to the possibility of U.S. airstrikes in Syria. Images of dead children, neatly stacked in rows, have a way of changing minds.
“It’s horrible, it’s stupid,” the intelligence official said about the East Ghouta attack by the Syrian military. “Whatever happens in the next few days — they get what they deserve.”

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