中国才刚刚发现这个古老格言的真相

信源：网易博客

中国需要美国国债，正如美国需要中国贷款。

After more than two tense, aggravating weeks, the federal government shutdown in the United States has ended. For Americans, who have watched the charade in Washington with a mixture of anger and bewilderment, the end of the shutdown brings relief: furloughed workers are back to work (with back pay), important government services have been restored, and national parks have re-opened. Most importantly, Congress has agreed to raise the debt ceiling, which means that the U.S. won't default on its payments ... until the limit is reached again in February.

在经过两周的紧张气氛后，联邦政府终于重新开张。美国人对发生在华盛顿的虚假闹剧即愤怒又慌张，所以政府重新开张也让他们松了一口气：政府雇员重新回去上班，也得到了拖欠的工资，重要的政府部门也恢复运营，国家公园重新开张。最重要的是，国会同意提高债务限额，这意味着美国目前将不会违约，下一次的债务限额到期时间是明年二月。

The agreement has also calmed nerves in China, where Communist Party officials spent the last week of the crisis fretting about the children running the U.S. government. On Monday, Xinhua published an editorial (in its English edition only) calling an end to the “pernicious impasse” in Congress and proposing a “de-Americanized world.” Elsewhere, China's Vice Finance Minister, Zhu Guangyao, warned that “safeguarding the debt is of vital importance to the economy of the U.S. and the world” and even went so far as blaming the Tea Party for the mess. This prompted a complaint from the much-mocked Florida representative Ted Yoho, who remarked that Zhu's words “almost sound like a threat.”

这也让中国松了一口气，期间，共党官员也对美国政府领导人感到不安。周一，新华社发表了一篇社论文章（英文版本）呼吁国会结束这个“有害的僵局”并且提出了“去美国化的世界”的想法。而中国副财长朱光耀警告道“保卫美国债务对美国经济和世界经济都是非常重要的”，甚至还谴责茶党造成了混乱局面。这引发了佛罗里达国会议员Ted Yoho的不满，他说朱的讲话“听起来像是个威胁”。

The explanation for China's frayed nerves is pretty simple: Beijing owns $1.28 trillion in U.S. Treasury bills, a figure higher than any other country in the world. The devaluation of the U.S. dollar would reduce the value of China's holdings and make it more difficult for Americans to purchase Chinese imports, which is a key component of the country's growth model.

中国之所以这么紧张，原因很简单：中国拥有美国12800亿美元的国债，比世界上任何国家都多。美元的贬值将对中国所持有的财产造成损失，同时也会使得美国人更无力购买从中国进口的产品----而这是中国经济增长的关键要素。

Here's how this works. Ever since China began opening its economy up to markets in the late 1970s, its growth has been driven, in large part, by cheap labor and a cheap currency. In other words, China manufactured inexpensive goods and sold them to consumers in richer countries, like the U.S. But there's a problem. Normally this influx of U.S. dollars would make the Chinese renminbi rise against it―and China would cease to have such a cheap currency. That would be good news for Chinese consumers, but not for Chinese exports. So, instead, the government doesn't letthe renminbi rise. It recycles its dollars into the safest dollar-denominated assets there are―U.S. Treasury bonds.

原理是这样的。自从中国70年代后期实行市场经济以来，其经济增长的主要动力是靠便宜的劳动力和便宜的货币。也就是说，中国制造便宜商品，然后出口到更加发达的国家，比如美国。但有一个问题。通常来说，出口商品而获得的大量美元将使得人民币升值----那么中国将不再拥有便宜货币的优势了。这对中国消费者来说是好事，但是对中国出口来说是坏事。所以中国政府并没有让人民币升值。用这些美元外汇来购买最安全的、以美元来标价的资产----美国国债。

Put another way, China doesn't buy U.S. Treasury Bills because it wants to―it does because it has to. Patrick Chovanec, chief strategist at Silvercrest Asset Management and an expert on the Chinese economy, put it to me this way: “Imagine that the Chinese economy is a store where the U.S. economy buys products and pays for them with IOUs. The Chinese economy can either keep extending credits to the U.S. to pay for goods, or go out of business. That's the dilemma.”

换句话说，中国购买美国国债是不得已而为之。战略分析师和中国经济专家Patrick Chovanec说：“把中国经济想象成一家商店，美国经济在里面用借据来买东西。所以中国经济不是扩大信用额度来让美国来买东西，就是关门大吉。这就是中国面临的两难境地。”

This mutually-assured destruction isn't all bad; for one thing, it goes against the common assumption that the Sino-American relationship is necessarily zero-sum. But there are also signs that the current arrangement is not sustainable. According to Arthur Kroeber, the Managing Director of Gave Kal Dragonomics, a Beijing-based economics research firm, Beijing's total possession of U.S. foreign reserves has remained static over the last two years, and China is now relying less on foreign trade than before. In addition, Chinese politicians may feel domestic pressure to move away from U.S. holdings in light of the embarrassing spectacle in Washington.

这种可能给双方都造成损害的情况并非那么糟；首先，这否决了一种普遍的猜想：认为中美关系必定是零和游戏。但是目前的这种情况不会一直存在下去。位于北京的经济研究公司龙洲经讯的总经理Arthur Kroeber认为，过去两年时间里北京手中的美国外汇储备数量一直保持不变，而且中国现在不像以往那样依赖外贸。除此之外，鉴于此次华盛顿的闹剧，中国领导人可能感觉了到国内要求减持美国国债的压力。

Yet there's little sign that the economic interdependence that underpins the Sino-American relationship is going anywhere. Following Zhu Guangyao's criticism of the “attitude of the Tea Party,” Congressman Blake Farenthold (R-Texas) retorted that the Chinese “need to stay out of our politics.” But given how much is at stake for China, though, you could argue that it's their politics, too.

但是还没有迹象显示在中美关系中起关键作用的经济互相依赖因素会做出什么改变。在朱光耀在批评“茶党的态度”后，国会共和党议员Blake Farenthold反驳道中国人“不应该干涉美国政治”。但是考虑到中国在这其中的利害攸关，你可以说这也是他们的政治。

"So, instead, the government doesn't let the renminbi rise. It recycles its dollars into the safest dollar-denominated assets there are―U.S. Treasury bonds. "

You are a few years out of date. China is diversifying out of dollars but perversely, their diversification into other currencies actually boosts demand or dollars. If China starts pouring money into a country, that country typically ends up buying more dollar assets to keep their own currency from rising.

Though its a taboo subject, there is an international currency war going on with everyone trying to devalue. But its a zero-sum game with the only result typically being more money globally dumped into dollars (meaning treasuries).

The system is designed to keep Chinese exports cheap regardless and the system is very, very unstable. The world has built an enormous bubble in US treasuries. Debt crisis or not, that bubble is still there.

“所以中国政府并没有让人民币升值。用这些美元外汇来购买最安全的、以美元来标价的资产----美国国债。”

你也太落后了吧。中国正在对外汇储备进行多样化，中国对其他货币的投资会导致对美元的需求。如果中国大量把钱投入一个国家，那么这个国家最终会购买更多的美元资产来阻止自己货币升值。

虽然这是个禁忌话题，但是的确存在着国际货币战争，每个国家都尽量让自己的货币贬值。但是这是个零和游戏，唯一的结果将是全世界会有更多的钱变成美元（意味着美元国债）

这个系统的目的就是为了让中国出口产品保持便宜的状态，而且该系统非常不稳定。整个世界让美国国债出现了巨大的泡沫。不管会不会发生债务危机，这个泡沫始终存在那里。

I'm relived as well. Punting the can is better than default and everyone is happy with this outcome except the usual crybabies that keep whining about the debt being too high, but there's no pleasing those folks.

我也感到轻松多了。缓兵之计总比违约好，大家都很满意这个结果，除了那些爱发牢骚、总觉得债务太高的爱哭鬼，但是没有什么事情可以取悦这些人的。

Huh. I assumed at least part of the reason for their taking on so much of our debt was to give them leverage if we ever got 'uppity'. Not that its likely to happen. I don't even know how many of our industrial and military secrets they've stolen with impunity.

我猜中国持有美国这么多债务的部分原因在于想在美国“傲慢”的时候制衡一下美国。不过这不太可能发生。我都不知道中国恣意地偷了我们多少的工业和军事机密。

If you owe a thousand dollars, the bank owns you. If you are Uncle Sam and owe several trillion dollars, you own the bank. Apparently China has just discovered the truth of the old adage.

即使你只欠银行一千美元，你就是银行的奴。如果你是山姆大叔并且欠了数万亿美元，你照样是银行的主。显然，中国才刚刚发现这个古老格言的真相。